Comments on: Oz Election http://barrdear.com/john/2007/11/20/oz-election/ Thoughts about economics, politics and life in general Tue, 09 Mar 2010 21:17:40 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Andrew E http://barrdear.com/john/2007/11/20/oz-election/comment-page-1/#comment-68 Andrew E Thu, 22 Nov 2007 01:32:21 +0000 http://barrdear.com/john/2007/11/20/oz-election/#comment-68 The only example I can think of where the Liberals displayed the discipline necessary to come back quickly after losing office is in 1972-5. Apart from this, the general rule is that after the Liberals lose office, they move into the following destructive cycle: - 1) bemusement, puzzled that a big white car no longer comes and picks them up to do stuff. They blame marketing or other ephemeral factors and sneer at the new government establishing itself. - 2) bitterness, sneering at voters for being so stupid. New Minister X is compared invidiously to Former Minister Y, now languishing under a barrage of gloating from the new government or swanning up and down Collins Street looking sleek. - 3) bombast, having picked a fight with the new government on which they've been soundly thrashed they cannot accept that they are being done by a disrespected foe and that the media aren't giving them the respectful treatment they had once enjoyed. - 4) bunfighting, with a leadership challenge being clumsily executed (whether or not the incumbent stays), which is predicated on the idea that because they are only a few seats behind the ALP government, they don't have to do much to get back in - pick a few areas of voter dissatisfaction and just float back in. - 5) burial, in which a careful Labor government is rewarded with a landslide over a lazy, out of touch Liberal government who only offer (insofar as they've thought about it at all) to do much the same as they did before they were turfed. Good MPs lose their seats, good staffers realise they've wasted two to four years achieving precisely bugger-all. From here, go to 2) and start again. - I sympathise with the idea that the Liberals won't be out of office long. When Menzies won in 1949, nobody predicted that Labor would be in Opposition for 23 years, whereas in 1972 people assumed the Liberals would be in opposition for at least that. Your challenge is not just to hope, but to make the case why the Liberal Opposition that we have (Costello, Abbott et al, not some theoretical bunch of the wise and good) will not descend into a voter-repellent rabble by the time the Rudd government delivers its second Budget. Good luck! The only example I can think of where the Liberals displayed the discipline necessary to come back quickly after losing office is in 1972-5. Apart from this, the general rule is that after the Liberals lose office, they move into the following destructive cycle:
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1) bemusement, puzzled that a big white car no longer comes and picks them up to do stuff. They blame marketing or other ephemeral factors and sneer at the new government establishing itself.
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2) bitterness, sneering at voters for being so stupid. New Minister X is compared invidiously to Former Minister Y, now languishing under a barrage of gloating from the new government or swanning up and down Collins Street looking sleek.
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3) bombast, having picked a fight with the new government on which they’ve been soundly thrashed they cannot accept that they are being done by a disrespected foe and that the media aren’t giving them the respectful treatment they had once enjoyed.
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4) bunfighting, with a leadership challenge being clumsily executed (whether or not the incumbent stays), which is predicated on the idea that because they are only a few seats behind the ALP government, they don’t have to do much to get back in – pick a few areas of voter dissatisfaction and just float back in.
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5) burial, in which a careful Labor government is rewarded with a landslide over a lazy, out of touch Liberal government who only offer (insofar as they’ve thought about it at all) to do much the same as they did before they were turfed. Good MPs lose their seats, good staffers realise they’ve wasted two to four years achieving precisely bugger-all. From here, go to 2) and start again.
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I sympathise with the idea that the Liberals won’t be out of office long. When Menzies won in 1949, nobody predicted that Labor would be in Opposition for 23 years, whereas in 1972 people assumed the Liberals would be in opposition for at least that. Your challenge is not just to hope, but to make the case why the Liberal Opposition that we have (Costello, Abbott et al, not some theoretical bunch of the wise and good) will not descend into a voter-repellent rabble by the time the Rudd government delivers its second Budget. Good luck!

]]> By: cam http://barrdear.com/john/2007/11/20/oz-election/comment-page-1/#comment-69 cam Tue, 20 Nov 2007 15:28:57 +0000 http://barrdear.com/john/2007/11/20/oz-election/#comment-69 IMO any government that loses an election is going to have to do three to five terms in opposition no matter how good they are. It seems to be the incumbency advantage in the Auian system. IMO any government that loses an election is going to have to do three to five terms in opposition no matter how good they are. It seems to be the incumbency advantage in the Auian system.

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