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	<title>John Barrdear &#187; Add new tag</title>
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		<title>A hint on the nature of the current global recession</title>
		<link>http://barrdear.com/john/2009/06/04/a-hint-on-the-nature-of-the-current-global-recession/</link>
		<comments>http://barrdear.com/john/2009/06/04/a-hint-on-the-nature-of-the-current-global-recession/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Jun 2009 14:14:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>John Barrdear</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Add new tag]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Australia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Manufacturing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Peter Martin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recession]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stevens]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://barrdear.com/john/?p=546</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It&#8217;s only for a six-month time period and (importantly) doesn&#8217;t attempt to correct for the varying policy responses across countries, but this graph highlighted by the Australian Reserve Bank&#8217;s governor, Glenn Stevens, is interesting:   Australia generally imports intermediate capital goods so in the latest numbers the fall in investment was largely balanced out by [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s only for a six-month time period and (importantly) doesn&#8217;t attempt to correct for the varying policy responses across countries, but this graph highlighted by the Australian Reserve Bank&#8217;s governor, <a href="http://www.rba.gov.au/Speeches/2009/sp_gov_040609.pdf" target="_blank">Glenn Stevens</a>, is interesting:</p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-547" title="gdp-manufacutring" src="http://barrdear.com/john/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/gdp-manufacutring.jpg" alt="gdp-manufacutring" width="779" height="606" /></p>
<p> </p>
<p>Australia generally imports intermediate capital goods so in the latest numbers the fall in investment was largely balanced out by a fall in imports, while the government&#8217;s stimulus handouts probably served to keep consumption up.</p>
<p>As a first guess and without hunting around to see if there are numbers, I suspect that households&#8217; spending of the handouts was also skewed more towards domestically produced goods/services over imports than has been typical for the last few years.</p>
<p>It would be interesting to see trade figures broken down into intermediate and final goods flows more generally.</p>
<p>Hat tip: <a title="Peter Martin:  The more manufacturing you've got, the worse your GDP will fall" href="http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2009/06/more-manufacturing-youve-got-more-your.html" target="_blank">Peter Martin</a>.</p>
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